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What the Data Shows, viral and cyclonic (13 May 2020)
Lots of COVID charts today, but sadly no math . First the tropics: The data shows that Typhoon Vongfong will sweep through the Northern Philippines over the next few days. The bad news is that it is...
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Why Data Matters: Hurricane Season Forecast and COVID19 Numbers (again!)
Where to start, the screwed up COVID19 testing/hospitalization data, or the much more useful hurricane season outlook (it’s an outlook, not a forecast, for technical reasons)? The hurricane outlook is...
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Trends or Noise? A brief review of how to look at data …
ZOMG! TODAY IS ANOTHER RECORD DAILY INCREASE IN COVID CASES AND THE SECOND RECORD IN A ROW! Or, it’s a leveling off of the increase. Or … well, what is it? It sort of depends on how you look at the...
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Misleading numbers, more dust in the wind
I’d rather be writing about hurricanes (or the lack thereof), or the dust (some of which is now over the southeast), but … at the risk of annoying folks, I think it’s worth talking about Florida,...
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The coming storm?
The Senate hearings yesterday sounded pretty dire. Epidemiologists are increasingly worried about trends in the COVID-19 stats across the south. The positivity rates and hospitalization data are...
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Georgia 21 Day COVID-19 Death Forecasts
Nothing much going on in the tropics (couple of suspect areas off the west coast of Mexico), no recent earthquakes, so let’s take a closer look at Georgia COVID-19 fatality numbers, and how to to use...
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Harbinger of Doom Appears in Morning Skies!
As any aficionado of the apocalypse knows, you can’t have a serious plague without a comet. And the year 2020 does not disappoint – Comet NEOWISE (named after the Wide-field Infrared Survey Explorer...
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Georgia COVID deaths: the critical week ahead
Before we revisit the mortality projections, let’s take a look at the big picture. As I have said many times, each disaster has its progression in time. Earthquakes are measured in seconds, hurricanes...
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Whats in a name: Gonzalo, Douglas, and TD8 (23 July 2020)
After a long boring spell, the tropics got “interesting” all of the sudden. Two storms in the Atlantic, and one headed to Hawai’i, so will be lot to cover today! But first we’ll start with a brief...
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Finding the storm (#AL92, Wed. 28 July 2020)
First a quick review – Douglas skimmed just north of the Hawai’ian islands, causing much less damage than anticipated as only the weak side of the storm swiped them. In Texas, as anticipated Hanna...
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